Residential Race to the Bottom at it's Beginning

2020 will finally stop the longstanding upswing  of the construction industry due to the Corona-Crisis. For this year a decline of -2,7% of the residential construction activity is expected, which is only the beginning of the downward trend, as Interconnection Consulting shows in its latest report.   

 

Bottom will be reached by 2022 

Tightened hygiene- and safety regulations curb the residential building completions already in 2020. Furthermore, closed borders led the shortage of skilled workers on the construction sites which delay completions further. Short-time work and massive unemployment clearly have a negative effect on purchasing power and investment readiness of local households. Consequently investments in  homes are expected to decline leading to a drop of building permits in 2020 by 14,9% compared to the previous year which will obviously effect building completions within the upcoming years. While the downward trend in 2020 will be comparatively moderate, Interconnection’s forecasts for 2021 are drastic with a decline of -8,7%. Due to the delay between building permits and completions of residential buildings, completions are expected to hit the rock bottom by 2022 while in 2023 we can expect a recovery.

 

Urbanization further Rising 

Due to declined private incomes building completions of detached- and semidetached houses are expected to drop over proportional. While detached- and semidetached houses accounted for 29,0% of all completed dwellings in 2019 this share is expected to drop to 25,0% in 2020. Even though a slight recovery of this segment is expected, the big trend of urbanization continues regardless the corona-crisis. Consequently construction of apartments will further increase. Was the ratio between apartments and detached/semidetached houses 50:50 back in 2008 a significant shift towards apartments within the last ten years (71% to 29%).

 

10/06/2020

Copyright: Interconnection, Publication free of charge for coverage regarding the study and InterConnection Consulting.

Ernst Rumpeltes

> Learn more about Ernst Rumpeltes

Ernst Rumpeltes, Senior Consultant, has been responsible for the preparation of studies and consulting projects at Interconnection Consutling since 2010. He is an expert in market intelligence, brand image analysis and customer behavior. Ernst Rumpeltes studied Business Administration at the Vienna University of Economics and Business.

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