The European underfloor heating (UFH) market is set to grow 7.1% in 2026, reaching almost €3.95 billion, as renovation demand and a stabilising construction sector pull the industry out of a two-year downturn. Sales volumes across the 13 countries covered by Interconnection Consulting’s IC Market Tracking® study are forecast to rise 0.7% to 105.9 million m², following a 1.7% decline in 2025. Spain is leading the recovery, with volumes up 4.8% and value up 9.6% in 2026 – nearly twice the European pace – as renovation activity and new residential construction both accelerate.

Much of Spain’s momentum comes from housing shortages driving new multi-family construction, combined with rising renovation activity supported by energy-efficiency programmes and growing heat pump adoption. Average selling prices, which slipped slightly in 2025 amid strong competition, are expected to recover by 4.7% in 2026, reinforcing the country’s above-average value growth and standing in sharp contrast to the wider European market, which is only stabilising after two difficult years.

The two markets also differ in character. Spain remains one of Europe’s most hydronic-dominated markets, with hydronic systems accounting for 95.9% of sales and wet, in-screed installation representing 95.2% of hydronic installations – reflecting the importance of new multi-family housing developments, where wet systems remain the default choice. Across Europe as a whole, the picture is more mixed: hydronic systems account for 86.9% of installed volume, while dry installation methods are steadily gaining ground, particularly in renovation-heavy markets, thanks to their lower installation height and faster fitting time.

“What we hear directly from manufacturers across Europe confirms the picture in our data: this isn’t one market moving in one direction, but many local markets moving at very different speeds. The one constant almost everywhere is that renovation is now outpacing new construction, and it’s increasingly bringing heat pumps and underfloor heating together as building owners prepare for decarbonisation,” says Allison Carranza, Market Analyst at Interconnection Consulting.

In the coming years, competition is expected to shift increasingly from individual products toward complete heating-system solutions. Manufacturers will need to combine energy efficiency, renovation-friendly installation and compatibility with heat pumps and digital controls, while also managing rising input costs and growing price sensitivity among customers.

Looking ahead, Spain’s momentum is expected to continue, supported by ongoing residential construction, expanding renovation activity and the increasing pairing of underfloor heating with heat pump systems – reinforcing its position as one of Europe’s fastest-growing UFH markets. The wider European market, meanwhile, is expected to settle into a steadier, renovation-led growth path through 2029, with a more pronounced acceleration anticipated from 2027 onward as residential construction gradually normalises.

Link to the report

24/09/2026

Copyright: Interconnection, Publication free of charge for coverage regarding the study and InterConnection Consulting.