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Window Sales Strongly Affected by Decline in New Construction

In Germany, the number of window units sold will fall by 5.4% this year. The reason for this is a large decline in building completions (-11.8%). With the exception of Saarland, all federal states are experiencing declines in window sales, according to a new study by Interconnection Consulting, which examines the market down to the state district level.

Overall, window sales will fall from around 15.4 million units to 14.6 million units in 2023. The strongest overall declines in window sales were recorded in the federal states of Brandenburg (-8.7%), Rhineland-Palatinate (-7.8%), as well as Schleswig-Holstein and Bremen with -7.7% each. Regions in the east fared best. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Thuringia, window sales declined by only 3.4% and 3.0% respectively. Bavaria is the German state with the highest sales, with around 3.2 million units sold, ahead of North Rhine-Westphalia with 2.8 million units sold. This is followed by Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony with 2.3 million and 1.5 million units sold, respectively, forecast for 2023. The top 10 cities account for about 17% of the window market in volume.

Double-Digit Declines in the Residential Sector

The decline in new construction is impacting sales in both the multi-storey residential segment and the detached and semi-detached house (EZH) segment. In the new-build EZH segment, the declines in the federal states are almost all in the double-digit range. Only Saarland is able to maintain window sales in this segment compared to 2022. Otherwise, the declines are all in the double-digit range. In the new multi-storey residential construction segment, Baden-Württemberg (-15.6%) and Berlin (-15.7%) and Bremen (-26.3%) show the strongest declines. The renovation sector must also expect slight declines for this year. Only three federal states (Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland) are expected to achieve positive growth in this sector in 2023.

Non-Residential Construction Hit Slightly Less

The picture is similar in non-residential construction, with declines in both new construction (-8.3%) and renovation (-0.5%). The biggest setbacks in new construction were recorded in Schleswig-Holstein with -17.5%. Other federal states with a double-digit decline are Rhineland-Palatinate, Brandenburg and Hamburg. But the other federal states also mostly record only slightly lower declines. In the renovation sector it is Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland with a positive forecast for this year.

Tops & Flops in the District Area

If you want to look for growth regions, you have to go mainly to the district level. The district of Frankenthal in the Palatinate will achieve growth of 15.6% in 2023 and thus leads the ranking ahead of Delmenhorst and Osnabrück. The negative ranking, on the other hand, is led by Wunsiedel in the Spruce Mountains with a decline of 21.5%, ahead of Altötting and Tirschenreuth.

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Double-Digit Decline in German Housing Construction

In Germany, housing completions fell by 2.2% last year. In 2023, Interconnection Consulting forecasts a crash in housing completions of 11.8% due to the decline in building permits, rising interest rates, high inflation and declines in real wages. Only in the smaller federal states of Thuringia and Saarland will more flats be completed in 2023 than the year before.

Overall, the number of completed dwellings in 2022 was 160,455, according to Interconnection’s regional study, which analyses housing construction at the district level. In 2023, this number will drop to around 145,000. Larger cities in particular are affected by the sharp decline. Berlin, Munich and Hamburg will all lose around 15%. Düsseldorf (21.2%) and Karlsruhe (25.9%) will even have to accept declines of more than one-fifth of the housing construction volume next year. The federal states with the highest housing construction volume, such as Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Wuerttemberg, will plunge between 11% in North Rhine-Westphalia and 15% in Baden-Wuerttemberg next year. In all other federal states, too, the decline will mostly be around 10%. Only in the smaller federal states with a lower volume of housing construction, such as Thuringia and Saarland, can expect growth of 4.2% and 2.9% respectively in 2023. But there is still strong growth in isolated cases despite the economic slump in construction. In Osnabrück, an increase in housing completions of over 66% is expected. Similar growth is also forecast for the district town of Saalfeld-Rudolstadt.

Prefabricated Houses on the Rise

One- and two-family houses are even more dramatically affected by the decline than multi-storey housing. In 2022, the decline in single- and two-family house construction was already 8.2%, and in 2023 this will increase significantly to a minus of 16.4%. The decline is greatest in Thuringia at 38%. In the most important federal states in terms of volume, Bavaria (-17.6%), North Rhine-Westphalia (-16.5%) and Baden-Württemberg (-16.7%), the decline is also above the average for the nationwide decline. Multi-storey housing could still record a slight increase of 1.5% in 2022. In 2023 the decline will amount to 9.2%. This is mainly caused by the decline in construction volume in the major cities, which has already occurred before. Overall, it can be seen that the prefabricated house rate is increasing. In Baden-Württemberg, the rate will reach 50% next year. In Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland the prefabricated house quota also reaches over 40%. In Bavaria, every third new house is a prefabricated house.

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Leading Companies trust in Interconnection Consulting

Admonter

At the IC Impulsworkhop "Sales Optimization" we appreciate not only the practical relevance, but also the eloquent language and the perfect rhetoric. The most important benefit for our company was the sales pipeline. Adrian Capellarie (Head of Sales Admonter Holzindustrie)

Deutscher Holzfertigbau Verband

Interconnection provides us with the prefabricated house study a plausible and veritable data basis for the analysis of the actual situation in the prefabricated house market and beyond for the assessment of the future market development. We are happy to use this interpreted data for our lobbying and everyday work.

Thomas Schäfer (Managing Director, Deutscher Holzfertigbau-Verband)

ELK

The prefabricated housing study by Interconnection Consulting shows a real picture of the actual market situation and forms a valuable basis for our strategic decisions.

Gerhard Schuller (CFO ELK)

Epson

EPSON is satisfied with the Interconnection's way of communication with the market and with clients. EPSON is also appriciate the Interconnection's continuous work trying to aim the report to be at the higher level. As a result, EPSON rely on Interconnection data, for the market of POS Printers and Systems.

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I appreciate on the forum "Impulsworkshop Vertriebsoptimierung" the practical relevance of Peter Berger linked with his practical examples. I also liked the sovereign presentation style. The most important benefit was for me, on the one hand refresh of methods and also the sales management tools that were shown. Ing. Dietmar Hammer (Head of Product Management Gaulhofer)

Kontron

The most important benefit of the Impulsworkshop "sales optimization" was in my view the procedure of the definition of strengths and the entire sales process. Mr. Berger is very competent and professional. Fabian Freund (Sales Manager, Kontron Austria)

Österreichs Personaldienstleister

The sales management tool ZAIS has become indispensable for many Austrian temporary staffing providers for fast and correct sales management decisions. A tailor-made online cockpit provides comprehensive monthly figures and data on temporary work and the labor market in Austria, while at the same time impressing with its overview and intuitive user guidance. Interconnection Consulting has consider individually to all user needs during development process and also convinces with fast response times during operation.

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Saint Gobain

Long experience and deep understanding of the construciton industry markets make up the quality of the IC studies. Interconnection Consulting is a constant companion concerning the assessment of markets and helpful for decision-making.

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Interconnection Consulting reports deliver a worthfull external perspective and are so a good contrast with regards to our internal market point of views.

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Scandinavian Business Seating

The IC Report gives a very good overview of the Western European office furniture market, in a well-structured way. The data is helpful to better understand the market developments and drivers.

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Schneider Electric

Under a short time constraint, Interconnection was able to deliver an outstanding study that exceeded my expectation in terms of quality and market breadth. I highly recommend Interconnection to anyone in need of market research.

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Sodexo

When developing new market strategies, Interconnection is a trusted source we always come back to. Christian Frey (Marketing Manager CS DACH)

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