Western European Window Market Reaches Turning Point

After three consecutive years of declining sales, the Western European window market is expected to see a cautious turnaround in 2026. Sales volume is expected to increase by 1.2%. However, the market remains some way from a full recovery: In many countries, pre-crisis levels have not yet been regained, while market developments are becoming increasingly divergent across Western Europe. The recovery of the window market is therefore not a broad-based upswing, but is being driven by individual regions and countries at different speeds, according to a new study by Interconnection.

DACH Region Sets Recovery in Motion – Western Europe Remains Uneven

The DACH region is providing important momentum for the recovery of the Western European window market in 2026, with sales volume forecast to increase by 2.3% to 16.8 million window units. A notable feature is the discrepancy between the significant increase in building permits and the more moderate development of actual construction starts. This suggests that developers are increasingly preparing new projects, but continue to act cautiously when it comes to implementation. In Germany in particular, the conflict in the Middle East and another increase in construction costs are dampening momentum and creating additional challenges for developers and construction companies. Switzerland, by contrast, is seeing more favourable conditions: Persistent housing shortages and low vacancy rates are supporting residential construction, while low interest rates are further improving financing conditions. Public construction is also benefiting from a high volume of orders, particularly for educational and healthcare facilities. At the same time, the recovery is not broad-based across Western Europe. While France and the Benelux countries are showing initial signs of a recovery in sales volume, market conditions remain challenging in other countries. The UK is expected to record a further decline of 4.9% in 2026 to 8.96 million window units, marking the fourth consecutive year of declining sales. Italy is also continuing to experience subdued demand due to restrictions on the Superbonus scheme.

Non-Residential Construction More Dynamic Than Residential Construction in 2026

In 2026, non-residential construction is developing slightly more dynamically than residential construction in the aggregated Western European window market. Sales volume is forecast to increase by 1.7% to 19.3 million window units, while residential construction is expected to grow by just 1.0% to 40.4 million units. As a result, the share of residential construction in the total market has declined from around 70% in 2022 to 67.5% in 2026. High construction costs, still relatively high interest rates and, in particular, limited housing affordability have resulted in a slow recovery in demand for new housing. Residential construction is therefore only gradually emerging from its low point. Non-residential construction, by contrast, remained comparatively stable during the crisis and is consequently entering 2026 from a significantly stronger starting position. The weakness of new construction is particularly evident: Its share of the total Western European window market stands at just 31.1% in 2026, and at only 23.0% within residential construction – historically exceptionally low levels. “Residential new construction remains the key constraint on the recovery of the window market, as high construction costs and limited housing affordability continue to weigh on demand,” says study author Laszlo Barla.

Metal Windows Gain Market Share

As non-residential construction has remained more stable than residential construction in many Western European countries since 2022, metal windows have further strengthened their position in the overall market. Their share of Western European window sales is expected to rise from 26.4% in 2022 to 28.1% in 2026. At the same time, interesting countertrends are emerging in several markets traditionally dominated by metal windows. In Spain, Portugal and Italy, PVC windows in particular have performed significantly better in recent years and gained market share.“ Material trends are by no means uniform: While metal windows are benefiting from the greater stability of non-residential construction, PVC is gaining importance, particularly in some Southern European markets,” says study author Laszlo Barla. A detailed breakdown of market shares by country and material is available in Interconnection Consulting’s latest window market study.