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Recovery in Slow Motion on the Interior Doors Market

The decline in the market for interior doors in Europe (Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain) will amount to 9.7% in value this year due to the corona crisis. Even if the market recovers slightly in 2021, it will still take some time until the market volume in Europe has returned to ist previous 2019- level, as shown in a study by Interconnection Consulting.   Germany is Recovering Fastest From today's perspective, only the German market will have a larger market volume in 2023 than in 2019. However, even in the largest Western European market for interior doors in 2020, a big loss in value of 6.4% is to be expected. While the crash is set to slow down in Germany in 2021, the decline will intensify again in France and Great Britain in 2021 and will then be in the double digits in both countries. Italy is the country that has been hit hardest by the crisis. This year and next year, the industry is forecast to crash by 22.7% and 22.5%, respectively.   Structural Change The market for interior doors was already under pressure before the COVID 19 crisis. The market volume stagnated between 2015 and 2019. A slower recovery on the door market is therefore not only due to the fact that building completions are being delayed, but also because interior tastes have changed. "Other room partitioning systems are gaining more popularity and are therefore reducing the number of doors per apartment unit," says Jan Hudak, the author of the study. Interior doors are however used in contract construction- for example in the office segment, where an increase in demand for interior doors is expected in response to the COVID-19 crisis, as more separation of employees is required. This will increase the proportion of non-residential construction, which currently makes up less than a third.   Regionality is Very Popular At regional level on the market, large national producers face smaller, regional suppliers, who can often respond better to customer requests and provide better regional delivery management. Therefore, the market is nowhere near as internationalized compared to other industries, such as the window market. The main companies are Jeld-Wen, Keyor, Theuma, Premdor, Sapeli, Prüm-Garant, WESTAG & GETALIT, Garofoli.

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Difficult Years Ahead for Fire Rated Doors

After a very promising start to the new year, the fire door industry in Western Europe experienced a major slump. In the first quarter of 2020, the market fell by 11.5 percent in value compared to 2019. For the full year, Interconnection Consulting expects a decline of 5.6% compared to the previous year. The market level of 2019 is not expected to be reached again until 2023. Italy, Denmark and Sweden Will See Double-Digit Declines In Germany, the largest market for fire rated doors in Europe, a decline of 7.4% is expected for the year as a whole, caused in large parts by the strong declines in non-residential construction. One of the strongest slumps in the EU is currently forecast for Italy (-10.1%), while the fire rated door market in the Benelux countries and Great Britain will lose 8.7% and 7.6% respectively. Scandinavia is also hard hit by the crisis and will lose a total of 9.6%, with the decline in Denmark and Sweden likely to be in the double digits. Great Expectations for EN16034 The market has high expectations for the introduction of new standards for the harmonisation of directives within the EU and Turkey in order to guarantee fair conditions for the manufacturers. However, these changes, which came into force in November 2019, only affected exterior doors and sliding doors. "The outer doors in particular affect only a slight proportion of all fire rated doors and therefore the effects on price harmonisation are not yet as strong as desired," explains Jan Hudak, the author of the study. However, this is one of the big goals to narrow the big price differences in different countries. Therefore, in the future, wooden doors with fire resistance of 90 and 120 minutes will dominate at the upper end of the price scale, while steel doors will remain dominant at the lower end of the resistance scale (30 min and 60 min). Gloomy Outlook The fall in demand in the first half of 2020 will be somewhat weakened from September due to the building permits already issued - which total around 3 billion euros. The two-digit decline figures that are expected by summer can thus be partially offset. Nevertheless, the gradual easing of measures to curb COVID-19 will only partially lead to recovery. The market for fire rated doors will not fully recover from the crisis until 2022.

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A Quarter of the Global Boat Market is Collapsing

The current epidemic COVID-19 will leave a gaping wound in the global market for sailboats and motor yachts. A drop in sales of around 23 percent is expected for this year. The market will only recover slowly in the following years and it will take even longer for the market to reach the volume of 2019 again. China and Southeast Asia Least Affected Worldwide sales in the leisure boat industry (motor yachts and sailing boats) will fall by more than a quarter this year. Italy is hit hardest on the demand side, but expectations are not much better in most other regions of the world either. On the other hand, China and Southeast Asia will be the region that will be least affected by the crisis. However, this region only has a global market share of 8.8 percent, while the United States (35.5%) and Europe (21.6%.) alone account for more than half of the global market. Electric and Hybrid Brave The Crisis The shift towards motor boats and catamarans in the product categories is set to continue. Sailboats, on the other hand, will have to accept a drop in sales of around 29 percent. "The sailboats did not manage to address the new generation with their topics," explains Jan Hudak, the author of the study. Motor boats will see a drop in sales of over 25 percent and catamarans a drop of almost 18 percent this year. The engine fuel types in the motorboat sector show that diesel and petrol engines hold a share of almost 97 percent. Despite the crisis, electric and hybrid drives will be able to further increase their sales volume this year (+ 9.6% and 19.6% respectively), albeit at a low level. Struggle for Survival For the approximately 1,500 manufacturers worldwide, survival is currently at stake. Many small companies in particular will not survive the crisis, Hudak fears. Things look a little better for large companies, because they are not dependent on just a few individual buyers, who may be affected by the crisis themselves, like the small - mostly family businesses. In addition to the COVID crisis, the trend towards second-hand boats, especially among the younger generation, is having a negative effect on the sale of new boats. Even before COVID-19, manufacturers' chief seats were very shaky and these are not likely to regain stability during the Corona crisis. In 2019 alone, many of the manufacturers' executive positions were filled, including Beneteau, MasterCraft, Princess Yachts, GulfCrafts, Baltic Yachts, Amels, Windy, Sunseeker and Turquoise Yachts.

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Curtain Wall Industry in Germany Will Only Recover Slowly

Sales of curtain walls increased in 2019 by 4.2% to 7.2 million square metres. In 2020, sales are set to decline by 3.8% due to COVID-19, as shown in a new study by Interconnection Consulting. The industry will only slowly recover from the effects of the pandemic by 2023. In 2020, due to the consequences of the shutdown, sales will most likely decrease to 6.9 million square meters, as the study shows. By 2023, this value will increase slightly, up to 7.0 million square meters. The crisis is set to end the continuous growth of the industry in recent years. The industry recorded an increase from 6.0 to 7.2 million square meters in the five years between 2014 and 2019. Wood on the Advance Aluminum is the dominant product group with a share of 78.5% and is not set to lose any of this majority in the future with above-average market growth. Lower growth and thus falling market shares can be expected for steel-glass combinations. The strongest upward trend is the wood-glass combination. „The advantages of the trend-material, like sustainability aspects and easy handling contribute to the rise of this material group. In addition, wood is renewable and resistant and has very good thermal insulation, ”explains Daniel Kollar, the author of the study. Trade and Industry are Catching Up The strongest sales segment by far for curtain walls is the office segment with a share of 43.2%, followed by the retail segment with 21.5% and industry. Only then comes the residential segment, which so far only accounts for 12.3% of total sales. This proportion will not increase until 2023. On the contrary, the residential segment will continue to lose shares, while the retail and office sectors will see the largest growth rates until 2023.

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