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Shades of Recovery: Europe’s Exterior Paints Market Finds Balance

After two years of fading colors, the European façade paints market is beginning to brighten again. Volumes reached their lowest point in 2025 at 280 million liters, down by -1.5%, but are expected to regain vibrancy from 2026 onward, climbing to 311 million liters by 2028 — equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%. In value terms, the market is forecast to grow from €2.09 billion to €2.40 billion over the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8%. These findings come from the new IC Market Tracking: Exterior Paints in Europe by Interconnection Consulting, which paints a detailed picture of trends across Germany, Slovakia, Italy, the Czech Republic, Austria, France, Spain, and Poland. Still, the picture in 2025 is far from uniform. Poland (+6.1%) and Spain (+2.8%) are adding vibrant strokes of growth, while Slovakia (-7.6%) and Austria (-4.9%) are stuck in darker shades. Meanwhile, Germany and France, which together account for more than a third of regional demand, remain the steady canvas for the industry. “The market has reached its trough, but the road ahead looks very different depending on geography. Southern and Eastern markets are gaining momentum, while parts of Central Europe remain stuck in stagnation. This forces manufacturers to tailor strategies by region rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach,” comments Juan Carraha, Market Analyst at Interconnection Consulting. In terms of market volume, emulsions remain the largest product group in 2025 with 33.9%, though their share has been gradually eroding over recent years as demand shifts toward higher-performance alternatives. Silicone-based paints follow with 29.2%, valued for their durability and weather resistance, particularly in Central European climates. Acrylics account for 19.5% of demand, maintaining strong positions in Southern Europe due to their affordability, while silicate paints hold 17.4%, continuing to serve heritage and restoration projects across the region. On the business side, renovation projects account for 74.4% of demand in 2025, underscoring the sector’s reliance on upgrading existing buildings. However, new construction — which currently represents 25.6% — is expected to gain momentum in the coming years as building activity gradually recovers. Distribution remains dominated by indirect channels (70.9%), and the residential segment represents nearly 68.7% of demand. The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly consolidated, with the top ten companies accounting for 53.7% of total market value. These include, in alphabetical order, AkzoNobel, Brillux, Caparol, Cromology, Keimfarben, Meffert, PPG, Prosol, Sto, and Unikalo. While large international groups are shaping the contours of the European market, local champions continue to add distinctive brushstrokes across niche segments. The European exterior paints market is stabilizing, but its recovery is uneven and increasingly shaped by regional dynamics. Interconnection Consulting’s analysis makes clear: success in this market will depend not on broad strokes, but on precision—knowing where, how, and for whom to paint the future.

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Automation Cleans Up in Europe

The European market for industrial and commercial cleaning machines is projected to exceed EUR 5.2 billion in 2025, following growth of 7.4% in 2024 and 8.1% in 2025. This reflects the sector’s resilience and modernization amid global uncertainty. Growth is driven by automation, smart robotic cleaning solutions, and eco-friendly technologies, supported by investments in construction, logistics, and healthcare. Both public and private sectors are renewing their fleets to improve efficiency, cut emissions, and meet stricter environmental standards. These results come from the study IC Market Forecast® Industrial & Commercial Cleaning Machines in Europe 2025, by Interconnection Consulting, covering major markets such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Turkey, Benelux, Greece, Romania, and the Nordics. According to Konstantinos Ioannou, author of the study, “The European professional cleaning industry is undergoing a structural transformation led by automation and sustainability. Companies that integrate intelligent and environmentally responsible technologies will be best positioned to maintain competitiveness in the coming years.” In 2025, Europe’s cleaning industry is clearly shifting toward automation and sustainability. Robotic cleaners grew by 13.5%, compared to 6.7% for traditional models, while the overall market rose by 8.1%. Although adoption differs among countries due to labor costs and industrial structure, robots show the strongest long-term growth, with an expected CAGR of 14.3% for 2024–2028. Environmental awareness is also driving the rise of eco-friendly municipal sweepers, which grew by 11.4% in 2025. Among Europe’s three leading markets, Germany remains the technological frontrunner, recording growth of 11.8% in 2024 and 8.8% in 2025. Expansion is supported by major infrastructure projects such as the Munich Airport extension, new hospitals, and large logistics centers by DASCHER, REWE, and AZO. The United Kingdom follows with growth of 7% in 2024 and 7.2% in 2025, driven by tighter chemical-use regulations, new Ultra Low Emission Zones (ULEZ), and strong demand for robotic and green cleaning machines across logistics and hospitality. France grew by 7.1% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025, reflecting the post-Olympic investment cycle. Key growth drivers include the NFPA 660 safety standard, Prologis’ EUR 6.4 billion investment plan, and the nationwide rollout of low- and zero-emission zones. The European market remains highly consolidated, with leading manufacturers — Avidbots, Bucher Municipal, Comac, Eureka, Fayat Cleantech, Fimap, Gausium, Hako, Kärcher, LionsBot, Nilfisk, Numatic, Taski, Tennant, and Wetrok — accounting for more than 60% of total market value.

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Europe Turns Up the Cool: A Hot Summer Sparks a Chilling Boom

The European air conditioners market is enjoying a period of solid growth, driven by record heat, rising comfort needs, and greater awareness of energy efficiency. According to IC Market Tracking – Air Conditioners in Europe by Interconnection Consulting, sales increased by 4.3% in value in 2024. With another warm year ahead and growing replacement demand, the market is expected to reach 7.7 EUR billion, continuing its positive path in 2025—up 5.1% in value—as air conditioning becomes an increasingly essential part of European homes and buildings. “The year 2024, the hottest ever recorded in Europe, triggered an unprecedented demand for air conditioning systems, especially in the residential sector,” explains Róbert Lukáč, author of the study. “Many consumers prioritized purchasing an air conditioner over other expenditures, including vacations, leading to temporary product shortages in several countries.” After a year of contrasting dynamics across Europe, both Western and Central & Eastern markets are set to continue expanding in 2025. In Western Europe, following moderate growth in 2024 (3.0% in value), the market is expected to accelerate by 4.5% in value. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe—where 2024 marked a remarkable rebound (9.4% in value)—will keep the momentum with projected increases of 6.2% in value. Climate change, the need to cut energy costs, and the replacement of older systems continue to sustain demand, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) forecast at 4.9% in Western Europe and 6.0% in Central and Eastern Europe through 2028. From a product perspective, the market’s vitality is reflected across segments. A compact A/C unit mainly used in residential systems such as single-split and multi-split units grew by 3.8% and 3.4%, respectively, while more advanced commercial technologies—VRF systems (+3.6%), Rooftops (+3.1%), and Chillers (+3.4%)—also performed strongly. The appeal of smart and connected solutions, offering users greater comfort and control, is reinforcing this positive trend. Even with rising competition from alternative cooling and heating systems—like cooling ceilings or floor-based heat pumps—the air conditioning market remains resilient. In fact, in some countries, reduced heat pump subsidies have made air conditioners an even more attractive option, as they efficiently provide both cooling and heating. Looking ahead, Northern Europe—historically less reliant on air conditioning—is expected to see the fastest growth, while Southern Europe continues expanding through replacement of older units. Urbanization, modernization of buildings, and the growing desire for better indoor comfort are expected to keep the market’s outlook bright. The industry remains highly consolidated, with Carrier, Daikin, Fujitsu General, GREE, Hitachi, LG Electronics, Midea, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, Samsung, and Toshiba together controlling 70.7% of the European market. In the single & multi splits used largely for residential segment, Daikin, Fujitsu, LG Electronics, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, and Toshiba lead the way, while Carrier, Daikin, Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Toshiba, and Trane dominate the non-residential market.

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European Acoustic Ceiling Market Shows Divergent Regional Performance

After several years of post-pandemic adjustment, the European acoustic ceiling market is displaying sharply contrasting regional dynamics. In 2024, the combined market across seven major European countries reached approximately 106 million m², with total revenues of €2.0 billion. While aggregate volume growth remained modest at 0.4%, individual markets show stark divergence: Southern European markets demonstrated solid mid-single-digit growth, Western European markets posted mixed results, and Northern markets faced contraction. The outlook through 2028 reveals continued bifurcation driven by renovation activity, fire safety regulations, and material innovation, according to a new study conducted by Interconnection Consulting.

Market Polarization: Growth Champions vs. Contraction

Regional performance in 2024 varied dramatically across Europe. Spain led with high single-digit value growth, supported by robust private-sector activity in commercial, office, and hospitality projects. As one interviewee noted, "After years of slowdown, the market woke up, especially in hotels and offices, where design and acoustics became part of the same conversation." Italy and France also posted solid mid-single-digit value growth. The UK showed resilient mid-single-digit value expansion despite modest volume growth, with industry participants reporting specialty segments growing 20-25% annually. As one expert emphasized: "The very high demand for the aluminum timber effect has never been seen before." In contrast, Germany experienced volume and value contraction in 2024, facing headwinds from reduced new-build activity and postponed public building projects. The Nordics faced the sharpest adjustment with mid-single-digit value decline and a more pronounced volume contraction. However, interviewed experts across affected markets note that fundamentals remain resilient, with one respondent explaining, "It's a pause rather than a collapse, projects are delayed, not cancelled."

Southern Europe Drives 2024 Growth

The growth momentum in Southern European markets reflects post-pandemic recovery and design-driven renovation investments. Spain's performance was particularly strong, driven by private-sector investments and hospitality upgrades. Italy's steady expansion is supported by continuing public infrastructure investments and renovation activity. France maintained positive growth in 2024, benefiting from Olympic-related projects and solid renovation activity, though the market is now entering a correction phase for 2025. As one respondent explained, "2023 and 2024 were good years thanks to large public and event projects, but 2025 is clearly slower." The UK demonstrated value growth outpacing volume expansion, indicating successful premiumization and product mix shifts toward higher-value specialty solutions.

Mineral-Based and Metal Systems Lead Material Mix

Material composition across the European market reveals mineral-based solutions (including mineral fibre and drywall perforated systems) as the clear market backbone, representing over three-quarters of total installations. Metal systems, while accounting for a smaller volume share, demonstrate significantly higher value contribution due to premium pricing and fire-safety compliance requirements. Wood-based solutions show the strongest growth dynamics, driven by aesthetic appeal and increasing residential segment demand. As one manufacturer commented, "Clients are asking for solutions that look less technical and more part of the interior design." Average selling prices vary considerably by material category, with wood and metal systems commanding premium pricing while mineral-based products remain cost-competitive, reflecting the market's bifurcation between high-volume commodity segments and rapidly growing specialty categories.

Renovation Dominates End-Market Applications

One of the study's most significant findings is that renovation projects now represent the majority of total European acoustic ceiling installations, substantially outweighing new construction. This structural shift is particularly pronounced in mature Northern European markets. As one expert noted, "Public and office renovations are keeping the market alive, even when new construction slows down." Geographic bifurcation within countries is also evident, as one participant explained: "In London everything is renovated, while in other regions/countryside they are new construction." Office buildings lead end-market applications, followed by commercial spaces, healthcare facilities, and education sectors. The leisure segment demonstrates notable growth potential driven by hospitality sector investments, while industrial applications remain a steady contributor to overall demand.

Modular Systems Retain Dominance Amid Design Evolution

Modular and grid systems continue to dominate the European market, representing approximately 74% of total installations due to their cost-effectiveness, accessibility, and maintenance advantages. However, design-focused segments are gaining ground, with baffles and suspended systems accounting for nearly 13% of the market and seamless solutions (both tiles and attached systems) combining for approximately 13% of installations. The shift toward design-driven solutions is particularly pronounced in premium segments and renovation projects, where architects increasingly specify integrated, monolithic ceiling solutions. Distribution channel analysis reveals a balanced structure, with direct sales representing the largest channel at approximately 36% of volume, followed by building suppliers stores, wholesale channels, and specialized retailers. This diversified distribution architecture reflects varying market maturity levels and specification cultures across European regions.

Pricing Stabilizes After Sharp 2023-2024 Increases

After significant price increases during 2023-2024, the market is entering a period of moderation. The divergence between volume and value growth rates in 2024—with value growth of 1.4% substantially outpacing volume growth of 0.4%—reflects both pricing power and product mix effects. Across material categories, price growth in 2024 averaged low single digits, with most materials showing year-over-year increases of 1-2%, though specialty products like wood solid systems maintained slightly higher pricing power. As one respondent summarized, "It's not just about sound absorption anymore. It's about creating comfortable, sustainable, and visually appealing spaces." Looking ahead, most markets are forecasting continued low single-digit annual price growth in 2025, reflecting controlled inflation and easing raw material pressures. This pricing stabilization, combined with expected volume recovery in most markets, is projected to support healthy value growth across Europe through 2028, with continued premiumization trends driving value growth above volume expansion.

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