Interconnection Consulting has released a new market study that analyses the development of the aluminium profile systems market across six major European countries — Italy, France, Germany, the UK, Spain, and Poland. The study highlights a market that has faced significant pressure over the past two years but is expected to regain momentum from 2025 onwards, supported by recovering construction activity, resilient non-residential demand, and successful long-term fundamentals.

Market Overview: Decline in 2024–2025 Followed by Recovery Outlook

After reaching approximately 518,000 tons in 2023, the European aluminium profiles market declined by -4.4% in 2024, falling to around 495,000 tons. The downward trend is expected to continue in 2025, with volumes projected to decrease by a further -1.8% to approximately 486,000 tons. This development reflects the broader slowdown in European construction activity, driven by inflationary pressures, high interest rates, and postponed building investments.

In value terms, the market declined from €3.3 billion in 2023 to €3.1 billion in 2024 (-6.1%). A slight recovery is expected in 2025 (+0.7%), before the market enters a stronger growth phase. Between 2025 and 2028, the aluminium profile systems market across the Europe Top 6 is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +7.0% per year, reaching nearly €3.9 billion by 2028.

This medium-term growth outlook is supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, easing financing constraints, rising construction prices, and renewed investment activity, particularly in non-residential and new construction projects.

Regional Dynamics: Southern Europe Outperforms While Central Markets Lag

Regional performance across Europe shows clear divergence. Spain stands out as the best-performing market in the short term, supported by comparatively stronger building sector dynamics and faster normalization of demand. From 2025 to 2028, Southern European markets are expected to grow above the European average value CAGR of +7.0%, positioning Spain among the fastest-recovering aluminium profile markets within the Europe Top 6.

In contrast, Central and Western European markets, notably Germany, and to a lesser extent the UK and France, have been more exposed to the construction downturn. Germany alone accounts for approximately 23.1% of total aluminium profile quantities across the Europe Top 6 and slightly underperforms the European average in the current phase.

However, these markets are expected to play a key role in the recovery phase, supported by their large market size, strong non-residential segments, and improving investment conditions from 2025 onwards. In value terms, Germany is forecast to record the highest growth, with a value CAGR of +8.1% between 2025 and 2028.

Product Group Developments: Façades Show Strongest Recovery Potential

Across product groups, windows remain the largest application segment in 2025, accounting for approximately 40% of total aluminium profile quantities in the Europe Top 6. Despite their leading position, window systems show a moderate decline compared to the previous year, reflecting weaker residential construction activity.

Doors and sliding door systems also experienced slight contractions in 2025, in line with the residential slowdown.

Façades, however, have proven to be the most resilient product group during the downturn, recording only a marginal decline in 2025. Looking ahead, façades are expected to lead the market recovery, showing the strongest quantity growth outlook with a CAGR of +4.2% between 2025 and 2028. This trend reflects increasing investments in non-residential buildings, energy-efficient envelopes, and architectural modernization projects.

Average prices per ton across all product groups are projected to remain relatively stable, with a gradual upward trend over the forecast period.

Demand Structure: Non-Residential and New Construction to Drive Future Growth

From a demand perspective, the residential segment remains the most affected by the construction slowdown, with quantities expected to decline further by -2.7% between 2024 and 2025. Residential applications are projected to remain below 70% of total market volumes until at least 2026.

In contrast, non-residential demand shows greater resilience, supported by public, commercial, and infrastructure investments. After only a minor decline in 2025 (-0.6%), the non-residential segment is expected to lead the market recovery, achieving the strongest quantity growth with a CAGR of approximately +4.5% between 2025 and 2028.

Renovation continues to dominate current demand, particularly in Southern Europe, while new construction remains under pressure in the short term. However, new construction is forecast to become the main growth driver in the medium term, supported by improving economic conditions and renewed project pipelines, recording the highest quantity CAGR of around +6.0% between 2025 and 2028 across the Europe Top 6.

12/12/2025
Copyright: Interconnection Consulting. Publication free of charge for coverage regarding the study and Interconnection Consulting.

After a 6,4% quantity growth in 2021, the Aluminium Profile Systems market in Europe (windows, doors, facades, sliding systems, conservatories and sun protection) kept gaining in 2022, but at lower rate of 2,4%. Despite a good start, the market started to slow down a bit in the second half of 2022, mainly due to political instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine war tensions and inflationary pressures, which led to an extreme volatility of demand over the year. “After replenishing their stock in 2021 to cope with rising prices, producers of final products had less need to order new profiles” explains Dr. Armandi, the author of the study.

Norway and Italy overperforming

Best performers in 2022 have been Norway and Italy. In particular, the Norwegian market strongly benefited by public projects resumed after being cancelled during the pandemic, an effect which will play out also in 2023. Meanwhile, the Italian market overperformed due to government subsidies for renovation of old residential building. Contrary, despite that the German market counts for almost one quarter of all profiles sold in 2022, slightly underperformed relative to the European average growth. For the whole EUTOP10 profile market, Interconnection predicts the quantity will keep increasing an yearly average of 0,3% for the next three years with a stronger rebound expected only in 2025.

Prices kept rising for all aluminium profile solutions

Even though the quantity sold did not go up a lot, the industry turnover still benefitted from rising prices and managed to reach over 4 billion euros, that is, a 10,4% growth compared to 2021. Higher prices, however, contributed a bit on the decline of demand, especially in the second semester. The reason is the political instability that caused inflationary pressure over the European economy and made the general public more price sensitive than in 2021. As a consequence, the average price kept rising again by +7,5% in 2022. However, as aluminium world prices start to get back to the pre-Covid levels, Interconnection predicts that average price for aluminium profiles will finally start to stabilize from 2023 and total turnover will fall by an yearly average of -1,6% up to 2025.

In terms of products groups, the most popular solutions, windows, overperformed a bit and went from 39,3% to 39,6% quantity shares. Additionally, facades and doors reached quantity shares of 24,9% and 21,3%, respectively. Among the major companies in terms of turnover, we find Schüco, Hydro and Corialis.